Ukraine: realities | «The Weekly Five»: 12.12 – 17.12

Welt: Ukraine may be preparing a counteroffensive for 2024, similar to the one planned by Zaluzhnyi for this summer

The German publication Welt writes that Ukraine may be preparing a counteroffensive in 2024, similar to the one planned by the Chief of the General Staff Valerii Zaluzhnyi for this summer. Welt is confident that despite the apparent deadlock of the Ukrainian counteroffensive and Western hesitation to support it, there are signs that Kyiv is formulating a plan.

Following the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, pessimism has spread in society. Negative news about a shortage of ammunition in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, a lack of soldiers, difficulties in the delivery of weapon systems from the West, and a decline in the morale of Ukrainians fuel the negative sentiments.

According to the media, Chief of the General Staff Valeriy Zaluzhnyi was never a proponent of an offensive without air support and agreed to it only "for political reasons." However, the "grand counteroffensive" that was supposed to lead to Melitopol and Berdiansk was eventually canceled. Journalists add that Zaluzhnyi, by choosing to attack with small units, preserved the lives of his soldiers, secured weapon systems from the West, and won crucial time.

 

CNN: Without the support of the United States and NATO, Ukraine may lose the war by the summer of 2024

Western officials are concerned about the prospect of the U.S. Congress not reaching a decision on military aid funding for Ukraine, fearing that without it and the support of other Western countries, Kyiv may only be able to independently wage war for a few months. CNN reports this, citing American and European officials.

The publication states that Western intelligence services are currently assessing how long Ukraine can hold out without the assistance of the U.S. and NATO. According to one senior U.S. military official's estimate, it could be "months," and in the worst-case scenario, it could lead to a "significant retreat or even defeat" by the summer of 2024.

“There are no guarantees of success without us, but they will certainly suffer defeat without our support,” said a high-ranking U.S. military official in a conversation with CNN.

 

Survey: 40% of Ukrainian companies believe the war will end in 2025

Forty percent of member companies of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine believe that the Russo-Ukrainian war will end in 2025. In a survey conducted in the first half of December 2023, 108 executives and top managers of chamber member companies participated, with 76% of the respondents being company executives.

Respondents were asked about their opinion on when the war in Ukraine would end. Forty percent of the companies believe that the war will end in 2025, 24% in 2024, and 17% in five years. The remaining 19% of responses included options such as "difficult to answer," "depends on the support of allies and Ukraine's actions," 2026-2027, "more than five years," and "within 10 years."

According to the survey results, besides the full-scale war of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, the major geopolitical risks for 2024 that could impact Ukraine and potentially businesses are considered to be the U.S. elections (69%), global armed conflicts/wars (50%), supply chain disruptions (41%), economic security (32%), and resource shortages (21%).

 

Charles Michel: EU leaders support the opening of accession negotiations with Ukraine

European Union leaders at the summit in Brussels approved the recommendation of the European Commission to initiate accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova.

“The European Council has decided to start accession negotiations with the EU with Ukraine and Moldova,” Michel wrote on Twitter (X).

The decision of EU leaders means that the European Commission will begin preparing the technical aspects of the accession negotiations with Ukraine, known as the negotiation framework, without further delay. It can be approved at the next EU summit in spring 2024 if it is recognized that Ukraine has fulfilled all the previous criteria set by the European Commission.

 

U.S. Intelligence: Russia has lost 90% of its pre-invasion army in Ukraine

A declassified report from U.S. intelligence estimates that the war in Ukraine has cost Russia 315,000 military casualties, accounting for nearly 90% of its personnel at the beginning of the conflict. Reuters  reports this, citing a source familiar with intelligence.

The report highlights that the losses suffered by Moscow in personnel and armored vehicles inflicted by Ukrainian forces have set back Russian military modernization by 18 years.

According to the recently declassified U.S. intelligence report, Russia initiated a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, involving 360,000 military personnel. Since then, as per the report, 315,000 Russian military personnel, or approximately 87% of the total force deployed at the beginning of the war, have been killed or wounded.

According to the source, these losses have compelled Russia to lower recruitment standards and call up convicts and elderly civilians for deployment in Ukraine.

 

The project «Ukraine: realities» is implemented by the News agency «Konkurent» together with the Civic Movement «SVIDOMI» in English for readers from other countries to tell the stories of people who survived the horrors of the Russian occupation.

Проєкт «Ukraine: realities» реалізовується Інформаційним агентством «Конкурент» спільно з Громадянським Рухом «СВІДОМІ» на англійській мові для читачів з інших країн аби розповісти історії людей, які пережили жахи російської окупації.